GUO is a stability rating agency formed by a group of professionals who work with the objective of measuring the level of political and social stability of countries.
It is important to provide certainty in such a dynamic and changing social and political reality. The Political and Social Stability Ratings of countries, based on rigorous and transparent methodologies, serve as key information for decision makers, providing certainty to ongoing and future investments.
We are convinced that it is necessary to create new ways of doing things. We use our knowledge and experience in public administration, governments, statistics and public opinion analysis to provide a technical, objective and transparent service to investors and decision makers.
Evaluating the political and social stability of a country requires an extremely complex analysis, since we live in a very dynamic reality and with access to such innumerable statistical data that can be confusing. Current tools to describe the situation of the countries are based on public opinion surveys and their respective analysis by specialized consulting firms. In our case, we developed a new way to measure and predict political and social instability contexts. After years of work we were able to create a model that meets all the necessary requirements for this.
Stability Ratings are designed to be dynamic and to adjust immediately to updated official data or to the occurrence of events that can change projections. Having experts in each of the areas under analysis and a counting with an historical record has allows us to know when it is necessary to make changes and in what proportion.
The stability rating is one of several inputs investors (banks, portfolio managers and analysts at mutual funds, pension fund, insurance companies, university endowments, international companies, etc.) may use during their decision-making process. It constitutes an essential tool to have both, a global look and a detailed analysis of each country/region on their situation and their particularities.
Having records since 2010 has allowed us to confirm that our model is correct, that it accurately measures what is happening and that it can successfully predict future scenarios. Our model was able to predict several occasions in wich countries entered in periods of strong political and social instability, and to which many reacted with surprise because no public opinion survey or professional analysis indicated the existence of this risk.
GUO is committed to providing market transparency through high-quality independent country analysis. Safeguarding the quality, independence and integrity of our qualifications is ingrained in our culture and at the core of everything we do.
We achieved a level of full transparency, since we rely on public data from official sources. The evaluation method is explained and verifiable by any user, eliminating any doubt about manipulation.
Our ratings are designed to provide ratings of the political and social stability of countries and regions. They are assigned based on transparent methodologies available for free on our website. These stability criteria methodologies are designed to promote comparison of ratings between different countries over time. They are subjected to a rigorous independent validation process.
Ratings are made by experts in each class of indicator that make up the index.
As part of ratings watch, we continually analyze real-time and historical data. Corrections to the projections are made when a relevant event occurs or when official data is updated. We adjust our ratings so that the market has the correct perception of how the level of stability of countries and regions varies.
We focus on certain aspects that are under the administration of governments and which have a strong impact on people’s daily lives.
One of the great challenges we encountered was to select from the vast amount of existing public and private data, the parameters that are relevant for determining the risk of political and social instability.
For this, we have identified key factors that can lead to social unrest, which can then translate to serious political instability.
Our model involves the processing of official data related to health, education, security, economy, environment and infrastructure. We analyze the evolution over time of selected indicators within these areas and develop a global index that summarizes the results by country.
The selected indicators are objective, representative, auditable and comparable among countries, allowing to draw trendlines and to make quick comparisons.
The data corresponding to each indicator are obtained from official database sources.
We also developed a predictive model specially designed for each of the indicators, which enables to project future scenarios for each country with great accuracy. The proposed models were corroborated by comparing our estimations with official data issued later, therefore ensuring reliability and certainty to our clients.
It is a satisfaction for us that today many people trust our service and use it when making decisions.
GUO uses the subscription financing model. This model promotes transparency, since we have no relationship with the countries analyzed. Furthermore, since it is open, it allows any interested party to enter and verify the veracity of the data and calculations.
Access the complete and detailed methodology by indicator. You will be able to find all the necessary information to clarify any doubts and you can even check the calculations yourself.